A-Share Market Deep Dive: Money Flows, Policy Signals and Investor Sentiment (Original Anvon Analysis, October 15, 2025)

I. Macro environment: China's window under the "slow growth" pattern of the global economy

2025 As we enter the fourth quarter, the global economy remains in a phase of low-speed recovery and structural divergence. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its global economic growth forecast in early October to 3.0%, but also cautioned about high market valuations and increased policy risks.
In terms of data, the growth momentum in the US and Europe slowed down, while the Asia-Pacific region remained a bright spot for global capital attention. In particular, China's economy has shown resilience, supported by growth stabilization policies.Manufacturing PMI picks up for second straight monthThe contribution of infrastructure, export and new energy industry chain is obvious.

In the United States, the Federal Reserve still maintains the strategy of "higher interest rates for longer". Core inflation sticky and labor market tension, so that the rate cut is expected to be delayed again and again. As a result, global capital flows appear to stage signs of return to the dollar, part of the emerging markets under pressure.

Meanwhile.US-China trade friction heats up againThe U.S. has imposed tariffs on some Chinese shipping and technology products. Risk aversion is on the rise, volatility in global equities is on the rise, and the VIX index has risen to a five-month high. the IMF has also pointed out in its latest report that if the world's major stock markets continue to deviate from the fundamentals, it could lead to the systemic risk of a "disorderly adjustment".

Second, the domestic market: the policy is expected to warm up, structural market continued

1. Economic and policy signals

Domestic policy level continues to release "stable growth" signal. The central government has repeatedly emphasized "stimulating the vitality of private investment" and "optimizing the ecology of the capital market", and the market is generally expected to follow up with more financial and monetary support measures.
The central bank's recent reverse repurchase and MLF operations have maintained an accommodative pace.Overall market liquidity is abundantThe
The phased stabilization of the renminbi exchange rate also helped to ease the pressure of capital outflows.

Real estate, infrastructure and manufacturing investments all diverged. The transformation of old and new kinetic energy accelerated, andNew energy, artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturingIt has become a key direction for policy support. This provides stable expectations for medium- and long-term investment in A-shares.

2. Funding and market sentiment

Northbound funds returned to net inflows in the first half of October, indicating a reassessment of the attractiveness of A-share valuations by foreign investors.
Public fund issuance picked up slightly as market activity increased.
However, overall investor sentiment remains cautious, with active short-term trading and insufficient long-term confidence.
The performance of heavyweight stocks on the main board of Shanghai and Shenzhen was stable, while the fluctuation of the GEM and KEM was obvious, reflecting that the market is going through a "structural repair" phase.

Third, the plate and hot spots: intensification of differentiation, scientific and technological growth is still the main line

1. Technology and the AI chain

AI, big models and arithmetic infrastructure continue to be pursued by funds. Policy orientation and corporate R&D investment are growing in tandem, and some leading companies are showing strong earnings expectations in their third-quarter reports.
However, valuation differentiation is obvious, small and medium-sized conceptual stocks there are performance cash pressure.
Investment should pay more attention to the combination of "AI application scenarios" and "underlying hardware innovation", such asIndustrial Intelligence, AI Financial Risk Control, Arithmetic Energy Optimizationand other areas.

2. Financial and consumer sectors

The overall performance of banking stocks is stable, with high dividend characteristics highlighted. As the downward space of interest rates is limited, the valuation pivot of the financial sector may move up slowly.
Consumer sector benefited from the Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day, "double festival economy" driven by.Food & Beverage, Travel & Hospitality, Appliance Retailand other industries are showing signs of short-term recovery.
However, the slowdown in the growth of residents' income and the recovery of consumer confidence still need time, it is recommended to focus on industry leaders and cost advantage enterprises.

3. Energy and cycles

International oil prices fell back due to changes in supply and demand expectations, energy sector short-term pressure.
However, new energy generation, energy storage, hydrogen energy and other directions continue to be supported by the policy, is the long-term growth of higher certainty track.
Raw materials and coal sectors, on the other hand, are in a high oscillator range, with trading opportunities dominating.

IV. A window of risk and opportunity

The current market is in the "policy bottom" gradually consolidated, "bottom earnings" has yet to be verified stage.
For investors, neither blind optimism nor excessive pessimism is necessary.

Main risk factors:

1. Risks of a global correction in high valuations are rising;

2. Uncertainty over US-China trade frictions;

3. Consumer confidence has yet to be fully restored;

4. There is a stage bubble in the tech sector;

5. Liquidity is overly concentrated in a few headline assets.

Direction of structural opportunities:

• technological innovation: AI chips, industrial intelligence, software going overseas;

• green economy: energy storage, power equipment, renewable energy;

• Dividend-paying assets: Banking, insurance, and energy leaders;

• Emerging market connectivity: RCEP trade chains, Southeast Asian growth stocks.

V. Anvon investment research views and operational recommendations

1. Maintain position flexibilityThe recommendation is for medium-term investors to limit equity assets to 50%-60% of their total position, and allocate the rest to stable assets such as bonds and gold.

2. Selected core assets: Prioritize leading companies with performance support, solid cash flow and outstanding industry position.

3. Defense and offense go hand in hand: During the stage of market uncertainty, high dividend-paying sectors (e.g., banks, telecom, utilities) can be used as a defensive bottom position, while some growth sectors can be allocated to capture excess returns.

4. Focus on the policy window: The fourth quarter could be a key stage for the marginal strength of macro policy, and positions could be added gradually once positive signals emerge.

VI. Conclusion: rationality and patience, the key words for investment in 2025

China's capital market is in a period of structural remodeling as the global economy rebalances.
From a long-term perspective, A-share system improvement, technological innovation and industrial upgrading will continue to enhance the intrinsic value of the market.
Short-term volatility is nothing to be afraid of, and real opportunities are often born in the midst of emotional lows.
What investors need to do more than anything else isUnderstand the cycle, manage risk, diversify, and remain patientThe

Disclaimer: This article is the original research content of Anvon Investment Research Center, for reference only, and does not constitute any investment advice. Market risk, investment should be cautious.
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